On September 2, it announced that it plans to use 550 million yuan of super-raised funds to purchase 16 MOCVD epitaxial furnaces for LED expansion, and the stock price of Ganzhao Optoelectronics has been “one word†daily limit for two consecutive days. Similarly, the market has applauded the LED expansion projects of several listed companies such as Sanan Optoelectronics, Dehao Runda and Silan Micro, and the stock price has risen.
Fang Zhilie, a professor at Fudan University who has been working on LED research since the 1970s, said: "I have been working on research for more than 30 years, and I really felt the popularity of light-emitting diodes (LEDs) until now." Today, 35 years since the commercial production of LEDs. .
Interestingly, in the current wave of LED expansion led by several listed companies, local governments such as Wuhu and Yangzhou have become the driving force behind them. According to the statistics of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, only Wuhu City has distributed more than 600 million yuan in financial subsidies to the two listed companies from April to August this year.
Yangzhou local government has calculated such an economic account: Although a MOCVD subsidy 10 million yuan, but after the production, it can directly form an annual output value of 20 million yuan and drive the relevant industrial chain to form an output value of 200 million yuan, 100 machines can be extended around The film formed an industrial group of 20 billion yuan.
Wuhu sample
The reporter went to Wuhu for an interview and learned that the two projects of Sanan Optoelectronics and Dehao Runda are located in the Economic and Technological Development Zone of Wuhu City, one in the Eastern District and one in the North District. Currently, they are actively competing for the progress of the project.
Wuhu is one of the sources of this round of LED epitaxial chip expansion.
In January this year, Sanan Optoelectronics announced that it will build a 12 billion yuan LED industrialization base in Wuhu and purchase 200 sets of MOCVD equipment, including the first phase of investment of 6 billion yuan and the purchase of 100 sets of equipment. In February, Dehao Runda said it will Invested in the construction of 6 billion LED projects in Wuhu. It is widely believed in the industry that epitaxial chips account for nearly 70% of profits in the entire industry chain.
The reporter went to Wuhu for an interview recently and found that the above two projects are located in the economic and technological development zone of Wuhu City, but Sanan Optoelectronics East District, Dehao Rundaju North District, are actively fighting for the progress of the project. On September 6th, the reporter drove from the center of Wuhu for more than 40 minutes to reach the Sanan project base. I saw that more than 10 single-unit factories on the 1200-mu land were lined up along the road, and all kinds of construction machinery traveled. "The project is fully advanced and can be completed by the end of October. Some equipment will be put into operation before the end of the year." Sanan Optoelectronics said.
According to this person, the first phase of the project under construction has a total of 18 individual projects with a total area of ​​more than 170,000 square meters, including 2 epitaxial workshops, 3 chip workshops, supporting workshops and office accommodation areas. At present, the foundation of the factory has been completed. In order to catch up with the progress, while the external wall is being constructed, the equipment has been hoisted and cleaned.
Previously, the reporter saw at the Dehao Runda project base that the plant project has been capped, and the No. 2 epitaxial workshop and the No. 1 chip workshop have begun to be cleaned and renovated. Lu Zhijun, deputy director of the Dehao Runda Infrastructure Department, said that the construction of the four major workshops will be completed in November, after which equipment will be installed and the machine will be commissioned. It is expected that the first product will be lighted around December 28, and trial production will begin in January 2011. Mass production in March, all production in 2012.
In terms of funds, Sanan Optoelectronics disclosed in March this year that the net amount of additional funds raised will not exceed 2.98 billion yuan, which will be used for the first phase of Wuhu project; on April 1st, it will also receive the “Technology III†of the Finance Bureau of Wuhu Economic and Technological Development Zone. The financial subsidy fund was 125 million yuan, and from April 8 to August 19, the financial subsidies for 74 MOCVD equipment were received in 5 batches totaling 268 million yuan.
Dehao Runda disclosed the additional issuance plan as early as October 2009, and plans to issue a total of 1.526 billion yuan for the wholly-owned subsidiary Wuhu Dehao LED Industrialization Project. Among them, the three companies with Wuhu State-owned background subscribed for a total of 75. % additional shares, a total cost of 992 million yuan. In terms of government subsidies, Dehao Runda received the “Technology Three†financial subsidy fund of 252 million yuan allocated by the Finance Bureau of Wuhu Economic and Technological Development Zone in August this year. In addition, according to the subsidy method of Wuhu City, Dehao Runda will receive equipment subsidies in the future. Among them, Dehao Runda intends to sign 70 sets, 30 sets of MOCVD and accessory equipment purchase contracts with Veeco and AIXTRON of Germany respectively, the price is not more than RMB 1,212 million and 560 million respectively, and the total of 100 sets of equipment does not exceed 1.772 billion yuan, according to this calculation, it is expected to receive 800 million to 1 billion government subsidies.
In addition, the Wuhu Municipal Government attaches great importance to these two projects. The mayor is the leader of the project service leading group, and more than 10 relevant department heads have successively announced mobile phone numbers to answer questions in a limited time. Wei Gang, the head of the Investment Promotion Bureau of Wuhu Economic Development Zone, who participated in the investment of the two companies, said that the LED industry is characterized by large investment in the early stage. With the increase of national policy support, the industry will usher in explosive growth, but with numerous The project started, and the trend of overcapacity has been presented. Only by getting started can we seize the opportunity.
Not only Wuhu, but also projects in Yangzhou, Hefei and Changzhi have been launched.
In September this year, Rainbow Group invested a total of about 10 billion yuan in LED projects in Hefei. It is expected to build 200 MOCVD (45+) and supporting chip production lines in two phases in three years. In November last year, Dehao Runda plans to invest US$45 million to establish a subsidiary in Yangzhou to purchase MOCVD equipment for the production of LED epitaxial wafers. In Changzhi, Shanxi, the investment of 900 million yuan, the first LED extension and chip project on both sides of the strait, and the sapphire substrate project with an investment of 200 million yuan are expected to be put into production in October this year.
Double "force" push
The demand for chips is in short supply. Coupled with the strong support of local governments, listed companies with smooth refinancing channels have taken the lead and achieved “multi-level jumps†in a short period of time through expansion.
MOCVD is currently the mainstream technology for the main raw material epitaxial wafers required for the manufacture of LED chips. The so-called epitaxy, that is, a layer of luminescent material is grown on the surface of a substrate such as sapphire or SiC by the MOCVD method. This equipment has become one of the main signs of LED expansion. For listed companies, subsidies undoubtedly address the negative impact of long-term investments on their current performance. “Local preferential policies will effectively reduce investment costs and investment risks.†Dehao Runda bluntly.
According to the “Implementation Rules for the Management of MOCVD Equipment Purchase Subsidy for the Production of LED Epitaxial Wafers in Yangzhou Cityâ€, Dehao Runda Yangzhou Subsidiary is expected to receive 8 million yuan/set (Red and Yellow) when purchasing MOCVD equipment for more than 5 units. Light) or 10 million yuan / Taiwan (blue-green) subsidy, the implementation period is 2 years. This subsidy is basically the same as that in Wuhu and Jiangmen.
According to the spirit of the relevant meeting of the Hangzhou Municipal Government, Hangzhou City will provide 40% of the purchase price of equipment for the purchase of MOCVD equipment, and the total amount of equipment purchased by the financial support will be tentatively set at 30 units (according to the actual purchase quantity). ), implemented from November 2010.
LED backlight application "blowout" is another important reason for the expansion of listed companies. “Since 2010, the domestic LED market expansion rate is much higher than some consulting organizations' earlier forecasts.†Ganzhao Optoelectronics mentioned in the expansion plan that the company's current production capacity is 24 billion, but the order demand is about 48 billion. , in a serious situation of short supply.
Fang Zhilie, a professor at Fudan University, said that the expansion of epitaxial chips is mainly due to the large-scale application of TV backlights. South Korea's Samsung began to expand production, followed by Japan and South Korea, which have developed the LCD panel industry, and China and Taiwan, which have expanded their production. This year, mainland China began to expand its production. In the first half of 2009, AIXTRON, one of the equipment manufacturers, said that the demand for LED backlights from LCD TVs has increased greatly. The new order value of equipment has experienced a decline in the fifth quarter, and the second quarter of 2009. Finally see signs of warming.
According to reports, compared with the original CCFL backlight, LED as a liquid crystal display backlight, its illuminant distribution is more uniform, can make the picture color better restored, can make the TV lighter, more energy-saving, and life Usually more than 100,000 hours, far greater than 5000 hours of CCFL lamps. Almost all laptops currently use LED backlights. A new global TV shipment survey from market research firm DisplaySearch shows that global LED-backlit LCD TV shipments are expected to increase from 3.6 million units last year to 35 million units, accounting for 20% of the world's 180 million LCD TVs. And it is expected that the LED penetration rate will reach 70% or more by 2013.
The demand for chips is in short supply. Coupled with the strong support of local governments, listed companies with smooth refinancing channels have taken the lead and achieved “multi-level jumps†in a short period of time through expansion. Take Sanan Optoelectronics as an example. In June 2008, it borrowed a shell from S*ST, and took off its hat in January 2009. In February 2009, it raised more than 800 million yuan for Tianjin Sanan at a price of not less than 12.44 yuan per share. LED industrialization project, in December 2009, the land price of 50 million yuan to participate in the Hubei Jingzhou LED industry base, in January this year announced the launch of the 12 billion Penghu project, although its 2009 sales revenue of only 470 million yuan, net assets of only 1.46 billion yuan.
For local governments, emerging industries are all on the same starting line, which naturally became the focus of “turning overspeedâ€. Wang Ziqiang, chief economist of the Wuhu Municipal Development and Reform Commission, said that supporting LEDs is aimed at the long-term. It is worthwhile to promote the development of the entire LED industry in Wuhu through subsidies to the two leading companies. The pond can naturally raise fish. Yangzhou calculates the economic account in this way: Although a machine subsidizes 10 million yuan, it can directly form an annual output value of 20 million after the production and drive the relevant industrial chain to form an output value of 200 million yuan, and 100 machines can form around the epitaxial wafer. 20 billion yuan industrial group.
Bottleneck
In addition to raw material price increases, MOCVD arrival time is also growing. According to statistics, it is estimated that more than 35% of MOCVD in the US Veeco and AIXTRON in Germany will be sold to mainland China in 2010.
At the time of the expansion of the epitaxial chip, because the upstream core technologies and patents are not in the country, many bottlenecks are being highlighted.
Raw materials have quietly increased prices and supply tensions. Data from the China Optoelectronics Association show that the domestic LED industry accounted for 0.4% of the raw materials, the upstream epitaxy accounted for 3.2%, the chip accounted for 8.8%, and the midstream package accounted for 87.6%.
LED industry chain is like this: first from the single crystal (currently mainly sapphire, silicon carbide, silicon) as a substrate for growth, and then on the substrate using various epitaxial growth methods to form epitaxial wafers, epitaxial wafers are sent The electrode is made in the middle, the epitaxial wafer is cut after the etching of the platform, and finally the epitaxial wafer is cracked into a single chip, and the chip is transferred to the downstream package and application product in the middle.
"Because raw materials are highly monopolized by companies in Japan, the United States and other countries, and the entry threshold is high, it is difficult for domestic enterprises to enter, and it is very difficult to seize market share," said Li Zhizhong, an analyst at Nisshin Securities. According to reports, there are currently three kinds of substrates used as LEDs, namely sapphire, SiC, Si and metal substrates, of which sapphire is the most widely used one, similar to the quartz surface. Nicha Corporation of Japan monopolizes most of the supply of sapphire substrates, and Cree of the United States is the only company that can provide commercial SiC substrates.
Since the beginning of this year, raw materials such as sapphire, organometallics and special gases have risen sharply. The sapphire substrate has risen by more than 50% from the beginning of the year to the present, and may increase in price in the third quarter. Insiders pointed out that the current price increase of the chip is only a moderate reflection of this, in which the price of backlight chips and low-power chips is higher, while the profit of some specifications chips is lower, and even negative profits may occur.
FR Chien, president of Taiwan's Canyuan Optoelectronics, complained in July that MOCVD equipment has been added to meet the demand for LED chips from downstream companies, but the supply of raw materials such as sapphire substrates is insufficient and some equipment has to be idle.
For mainland companies, in addition to raw material price increases, MOCVD arrival time is also growing. Li Zhizhong, an analyst at Nisshin Securities, said that Sanan Optoelectronics plans to add 56 units in 2010, and the actual increase is expected to be less than 30 units; Shilan Micro plans to add 8 units, and the actual new addition is expected to be only 3; Dehao Runda 10 The plan for Taiwan may be postponed until the next year. Dou Linping, deputy secretary-general of China Lighting Association, revealed at the end of June that China’s purchase of MOCVD orders has been scheduled for three years.
According to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, it is estimated that more than 35% of the MOCVD of the US Veeco company and the German AIXTRON company will be sold to mainland China in 2010. Analysts pointed out that the delay in the arrival of equipment will directly affect the domestic chip production time, it will be difficult to take the lead.
"Excavation angle" prevails
The expansion of production has led to a shortage of talents that are already in short supply, and high salaries have naturally become the preferred method for companies. At present, the salary in the industry has risen quietly.
In addition, in the current industry background, epitaxial chip engineers and core personnel are “digging†is a high probability event.
Tian Hongtao, the current chief engineer of Dehao Runda, was a Ph.D. student at Xiamen University. He was involved in the Sanan Optoelectronics project during his Ph.D. and later became one of the founders of Silan Microelectronics Shilan Mingxin. . Tian Hongtao said that at present, in addition to the general manager and the chief financial officer, Shilan Mingxin has been “digging†by major companies. In June this year, Tian himself was “digging†with the owner of the Silan Mingxin Equipment Department and R&D department to DHL Runda, who promised to give stock options.
Dehao Runda was originally a small household appliance enterprise. Since it introduced strategic investor Guangdong Jianlongda in March 2009, it invested 100 million yuan to purchase Guangdong Jianlongda, Enping Jianlong and LED business related assets, and officially entered the LED industry. DeHao Runda, which is “halfway to killâ€, also has a large number of professional and technical personnel on the projects of Majihu and Yangzhou.
According to reports, LED epitaxial chip manufacturing belongs to the semiconductor front-end manufacturing process. The intermediate process involves the intersection of physics, chemistry, materials, microelectronics, etc. This step requires advanced process engineers to have a very precise process and experience judgment on the entire manufacturing process. Although colleges have corresponding majors, because MOCVD equipment and raw materials are expensive, many students have never seen this equipment when they graduated. The teaching relies mainly on books.
On the other hand, companies across the entire LED chain are expanding. Statistics show that among mainland companies, there are 62 LED chip manufacturers, more than 1,000 packaging companies, and nearly 2,000 related downstream application companies. In addition to the expansion of epitaxial chips, almost every downstream packaging plant is expanding. Chip manufacturers and LED TV manufacturers are also marching into the packaging industry. It is expected that this situation will continue in the second half of the year.
The expansion of production has led to a shortage of talents that are already in short supply, and high salaries have naturally become the company's preferred method. At present, the salary in the industry has risen quietly. It is understood that LED chip engineers with more than 3 years of work experience have a monthly salary of more than 10,000. Senior engineers earn hundreds of thousands of annual salary, but they still cannot stop the loss of personnel. Even ordinary workers frequently quit. According to the survey, the average length of service for ordinary workers in some enterprises is less than 1.5 years, and some even only half a year.
In the expansion plan, Ganzhao Optoelectronics has indicated that the technical risks are mainly reflected in talents, alternative technologies and intellectual property/patents. Among them, the biggest technical risk of LED epitaxial chip project lies in the lack of technical talents, mainly due to the difficulty in finding the backbone of industrial technology, the loss of relevant technical personnel of enterprises, and the cultivation cost of high-level technical personnel.
Not only that, but some of the company's core personnel left the company to "start another stove", such as Ganzhao Optoelectronics, which just landed on the GEM in August this year, and its core team members are all from Sanan Electronics, the major shareholder of Sanan Optoelectronics. Ganzhao Optoelectronics Prospectus shows that Deng Diming, the chairman of the company, was the general manager of Sanan Electronics. General Manager Wang Xiangwu was the deputy general manager and chief engineer of Sanan Electronics. Director Ye Sunyi was the manager of Sanan Electronics Finance Department. Holding 22.6%, 16.6%, 7.5% of the shares before the issuance of Ganzhao Optoelectronics. Not only that, but another five people also worked for Sanan Electronics.
In addition, a number of companies plan to launch equity incentive programs to attract talent. Among them, Shilan Micro's shareholder Silan Holdings has transferred the 11.9322 million company limited shares of tradable shares to the company's management team and scientific and technical personnel twice, and timely launched a new round of equity incentive plan.
Excess
Unlike competing polysilicon, but it is quickly oversupplied, there is a surplus of LED chips for backlighting, but another big market, general lighting, is worth looking forward to.
"From the current industrialization progress to judge the actual output in the future, and with the continuous expansion of the epitaxial chip capacity expansion in 2012, the supply and demand relationship will be improved, and the cost and price of epitaxial chips will continue to decline, but the price will fall more than the cost. The gross profit margin of this link will gradually decline." Li Zhizhong, an analyst at Nisshin Securities, believes that.
The research report released by Industrial Securities in August even claimed that the overcapacity of chips in 2011 was a high probability event. Tian Hongtao also believes that the future will definitely face fierce market competition. After three to five years, the LED industry may only leave three to five leading enterprises.
According to the calculation of Xingye Securities, the new effective production capacity of the global LED industry in 2011 is equivalent to 555 MOCVD, which is more than 90% higher than that in 2010, far greater than the new demand brought by the large-size LCD panel backlight in 2011. If the LED general lighting penetration rate fails to achieve a significant increase, other applications have not seen new growth, and the global LED industry is likely to have overcapacity in 2011.
Although there are concerns about overcapacity in the industry, Professor Fang Zhilie still encourages enterprises: If they want to transform or prepare for expansion, then they will be in the morning. His reason is that semiconductors and other electronic products follow Moore's Law, that is, the higher the performance, the cheaper the price, and the larger the market. LED is also an electronic product, and it must follow this law. For enterprises, only the rapid development of large projects can make the product performance higher and higher, and only a large number of mass production, in order to make the price cheaper. On the contrary, the time of launching is slow and small projects cannot escape failure and the fate of being acquired.
Unlike competing polysilicon, but it is quickly oversupplied, there is a surplus of LED chips for backlighting, but another big market, general lighting, is worth looking forward to. According to the Industrial Securities Research Report, overcapacity can cause a sharp drop in chip prices, which will help accelerate the launch of the general lighting market.
The industry generally believes that LED from the application development trend, the driving force in the next three years mainly comes from the large-size LCD panel backlight, which will be driven by the skylighting lighting market in the next 5 to 10 years. At present, the global demand for light sources is 35 billion, but the penetration rate of LED lamps is less than 1%. For every 1% increase in the penetration rate, the demand for LED light sources will be 300 million to 400 million. If the penetration rate is estimated at 30%. In 2015, the global LED lighting-related market will exceed 100 billion US dollars. At that time, there will be no excess, and on the contrary, another round of development is likely to be ushered in.
At present, the domestic LED lighting market has not really started. In March 2009, the Ministry of Science and Technology decided to increase the pilot work of the “Ten Cities and Ten Thousand Cities†pilot project and expand the scope of the pilot. However, most of the companies that have been optimistic about this policy and have launched outdoor lighting production lines such as LED street lights and tunnel lights have appeared. Lost.
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