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[Netease smart news November 9 news] When a group of well-known artificial intelligence experts was asked whether it is possible to develop super intelligence, their answer is the same: it is possible. Until now, the debate over whether computers are smarter than humans has ceased to exist.
The panel, which was held in California earlier this year, consists of several "well-known people" in the field of artificial intelligence:
Barth Saleman (Cornell University)
David Chalmers (New York University)
Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX)
Jan Tarian (CSER/FLI)
Nick Bostrom (FHI)
Ray Kurzweil (Google)
Stuart Russell (University of California, Berkeley)
Sam Harris
Dames Hasabis (founder of DeepMind)
Although in theory—taking into account our understanding of the laws of physics—computers transcend human wisdom and then achieve “super-intelligence†is feasible, the probability of this happening is certainly minimal.
But according to every member of the group, this is very likely. When asked to answer the question “Is the AI ​​going to be super smart?†(Answers can be “Will†or “No†or “It's hard to sayâ€), and each member's answer is “yesâ€.
Elon Musk even pretend to disagree with the opinions of other team members, which to a large extent delighted the audience and some people on stage. Perhaps it is because when the extremely clever people are completely on the same front, this embarrassing situation will occur; it will be difficult to conduct scientific research without debate.
If we accept that artificial intelligence will reach the "super smart" idea, then we should understand what this means and when it will happen.
Prof. Nick Bostrom has already written a book about super intelligence. In his book, he defines the concept of super intelligence as "a virtual agent whose intelligence far exceeds the intelligence of the most intelligent and gifted human being."
It will be smarter than us, which means that we will not understand it - and we cannot understand it now.
One obvious fact about artificial intelligence is that no one can predict what will happen in a long time. The progress of machine learning has come so fast, so those thinking that we know what will happen in the next six months may be too naive.
We are in an unknown area.
But what does this have to do with Stephen Hawking?
Professor Hawking said in an interview with Wired recently that artificial intelligence is a technological revolution:
Perhaps with this new technology revolutionary tool, we can eliminate the damage caused to the natural world by the last industrial revolution. Of course, our ultimate goal is to eliminate disease and poverty. All aspects of our lives will change. In short, the success of creating artificial intelligence may be the most significant event in human history.
He is not the only one who believes that artificial intelligence will change our lives forever. Professor Nick Bostrom said that artificial intelligence represents the third "fundamental change in the human condition."
According to Bostrom, the first was the agricultural revolution, followed by the industrial revolution. If artificial intelligence exceeds human intelligence, we can achieve the next technological revolution.
It is difficult to find a standard to measure whether artificial intelligence can have the same impact as the Industrial Revolution - especially now that most news headlines read like science fiction.
In the same interview, Professor Hawking also said:
I worry that artificial intelligence may completely replace humans. If people can design computer viruses, then someone will design artificial intelligence that can improve and replicate itself. This will be a new form of life beyond humanity.
Professor Hawking might not be suggesting that we stop researching artificial intelligence and instead become Luddite.
We can easily understand the idea of ​​a killer robot taking over the world. We have already watched more than a dozen times in this movie. More importantly, it is always easier to look at the future through a destructive perspective, otherwise it will be distorted by reality.
The future world depicted in movies and science fiction seems to be basically what it is today. It is just more cool gadgets and slang that young people like to use. Trying to explain the revolutionary world brought about by artificial intelligence will be a difficult task.
Earlier this month, Prof. Bostrom told members of the British Parliament's Artificial Intelligence Committee that there is simply no way to do this:
Just like any new universal technology, the most exciting applications are not obvious at the beginning and only when people start using the technology will they be discovered.
Those news headlines, such as the title of this article, tell us that Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk think that artificial intelligence may destroy humans, and this is the "fast food news" version of real conversation.
The real key is that both Musk and Hawking have optimism about machine learning technology and excitement. Professor Hawking believes that artificial intelligence can cure diseases. Musk has invested heavily in the field of open artificial intelligence. Its mission is:
Universal Artificial Intelligence (AGI) will be the most important technology ever created by humans.
If we are occupied by exaggerated and fearful emotions, it will make all of us become opponents. A more pragmatic approach (even for Elon Musk, who believes that artificial intelligence will trigger World War III has adopted this method) is to move forward on the basis of prudence, optimism, and the preservation of the best interests of all mankind. .
(From: The Next Web Compilation: Netease See Compiled Robot Reviewer: Li Qing)
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