It is still unclear when the global economy will recover. However, Tuoba Industrial Research Institute predicts that the overall LED industry will continue to grow in 2009, and LEDs with energy-saving advantages will become one of the core industries in this year's market. Among the three most explosive markets, LED street lights, outdoor displays, and medium and large displays using LED backlight modules are expected to enter the commercialization phase in 2010. In 2009, China’s LED display output will reach 13.7 billion yuan, an increase of 37%; LED backlight application in the field of laptop (NB) quickly introduced after the instant burst, it is expected that the development trend of large-size LED backlight in 2010 will also be clear.
In terms of LED street lights, Tuoba said that LEDs have high light conversion efficiency, and have the advantages of low power consumption, light weight, 1f3a light weight, long life and no mercury, no radiation, and a wide range of applications, including local lighting. , panel backlights, building (landscape) lighting, traffic lighting, medical and agricultural and fishery equipment light sources, etc., so they are favored by manufacturers.
Tuo pointed out that all lighting manufacturers are currently working to improve LED luminous efficiency, and have gradually broken through the limitations of traditional light source development. At present, LED luminous efficiency has reached the level of the general lighting market. On the other hand, the promotion of policies is also an important driving force for the development of LED lighting. From 2010 to 2014, it will be the peak period for the implementation of the incandescent lamp cut-off and ban policy in all countries of the world. Therefore, in 2009, in order to implement the follow-up policies, governments have already implemented Started to actively replace outdoor traditional light sources.
Taking China as an example, China will launch the “Ten Cities and Ten Thousand†LED streetlight plan this year, and list 21 large and medium-sized cities such as Shenzhen, Chongqing, Chengdu, Tianjin, Mianyang and Zhengzhou as the approved cities in the plan. Product specifications and market rules are clearly defined, and LED products are one of the important options.
Tuoba expects that the global LED street lamp market demand potential will reach 2.5 million baht in 2009, with an annual growth rate of 178%. Among them, China accounts for more than 50% of the total demand, about 1.4 million baht. By 2010, LED light efficiency will surpass all traditional lighting sources and officially enter the stage of market commodification. However, LEDs must officially enter the mainstream in the lighting market, and the cost is still the biggest obstacle. It is predicted that even in 2010, there will still be a 10-fold price difference between LED lighting fixtures and traditional lighting fixtures. By 2020, LEDs may be mainstream. Fluorescent lamps that achieve the same source cost.
However, as the popularity of LED lighting applications is the trend of the times, LED manufacturers will first introduce from the special market that is most suitable for the characteristics of LED light sources, such as auxiliary lighting, professional lighting, outdoor lighting, architectural lighting, commercial lighting, etc., and then gradually expand to the general Home lighting market.
The demand for LED outdoor displays has contributed to the growth of LEDs. According to Tuoba's analysis, the LED display of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games is refreshing, not only highlighting China's demonstration role as a technological powerhouse and driving the development of China's semiconductor lighting industry. The Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission and the World Expo Group have signed cooperation on LED lighting projects. It is expected that LED lighting and outdoor large-scale displays will be more widely used in the 2010 Shanghai World Expo. It is estimated that the output value of China's LED display will reach 13.7 billion yuan in 2009, an annual increase of 37%. It is the most clear project in the market for many LED applications.
LED backlight development potential After the large-size NB quickly introduced LED backlight technology, the business opportunity broke out instantly. Tuoba pointed out that for NB products, the current LED and CCFL panel price difference is only less than 5 US dollars, so LED backlight applications are gradually infiltrating from high-end models to low-end models. Although the penetration rate of LED NB in ​​2008 was only 14%, Tuoba predicted that it will grow rapidly to 60% in 2009. In addition, the LED NB shipments of all panel and backlight module factories in the second quarter of this year are as high as 70%. It is expected that by 2010, the LED NB penetration rate will reach 95%.
The average number of LEDs used in NB panel backlights is about 35 to 40. In 2009, the number of LEDs required for NB backlights will reach 3.721 billion, compared with 648 million in 2008, with an annual growth rate of 474%. . As for the introduction and development of Monitor and LCD TV, it is still relatively unclear. However, Tuoba said that it is worth keeping a close watch. And it can be confirmed that the development trend of large LED backlights in 2010 will be clear.
According to Tuoba's estimation statistics, the demand for mobile phones in 2009 was about 1.4 billion. It is predicted that the demand for LEDs in mobile phone panels will be 4.5 billion. In 2009, the global LED Netbook demanded about 27.25 million units. The Netbook backlight requires an average of 30 LEDs, and the LED demand is 800 million. In 2009, the global demand for large-size LED NB is about 70 million units, and the NB backlight requires an average of 45 LEDs. The number of LED NB LEDs is 3 billion. It is predicted that the global LED TV demand will be 2.5 million units in 2009, with an average of 500 LEDs per LCD TV. The demand for LEDs is about 1.2 billion.
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