Lin Zhixun, head of the IEK Energy and Economic Research Group of the ITRI, said that the LED industry in mainland China has rapidly introduced the expansion of MOCVD machine capacity in 2010. It is expected to continue to increase in multiples in 2011. The fastest capacity of the mainland MOCVD machine in 2011 may be It will be comparable to or even surpassed in Taiwan, making the price of low-end LED chips afraid to kill all the way, bringing strong operational pressure to Taiwan LED manufacturers in 2011. However, even if the competitive environment will become more dangerous, but large companies such as Jingyuan Optoelectronics (2448), Yuyuan Optoelectronics (3061) and so on due to the upstream and downstream strategy layout, the competitive situation should still have a comparative advantage.
It is observed that there are only about 100 MOCVD machines in China in 2008. In 2010, the total number of MOCVD machines installed reached more than 330, and the MOCVD machines introduced later were all major equipment manufacturers such as Aixtron and Veeco in 2009. A new generation of 42-piece (drop-off) machines or 45-unit machines. These new machines have only recently trial production, and the output is not obvious in 2010, but as the entire process slowly runs smoothly, it is expected that the fastest in the first quarter of 2011, will continue to see the mainland LED epitaxial / crystal The new capacity of the pellet will have a considerable impact on the entire LED industry.
The first to bear the pressure from China's LED epitaxial / grain new production capacity pressure is Taiwan's LED epitaxial / grain manufacturers. The main reason is that after the new LED production capacity in mainland China is pushed to the market, it will first go to the low-end market at the beginning, and when the low-end market finishes eating, it will slowly attack the middle and high-end market. Since LED is one of the key industries supported by the government, it seems that mainland LED epitaxial/grain manufacturers have abundant funds, rich money and manpower.
In fact, the middle and low-end LED die market was originally an important field for Taiwan LED manufacturers. Lin Zhixun said that even if all walks of life have actively promoted and hoped to promote the upgrade of Taiwan's LED industry, before and after fully investing in the high-end market, the low-end market should still be good. After all, this is enough to provide sufficient capacity for the manufacturers to reduce the volume. The market in which manufacturers survive.
However, from the perspective of individual manufacturers, the development and order status of LED Epistar in 2011 should be relatively stable. For example, Jingdian not only has its own capacity for nearly 300 MOCVD machines in 2011, but also Guangguang (8199), Taigu (3339), and South Asia Optoelectronics, which are members of the Pan-crystalline Group. In total, the production capacity of the MOCVD machine of the Pan-Platinum Group will reach more than 400 units.
In addition, Jingdian and LED International have patent exchange authorization, and a joint venture company, which not only makes product development more accessible, but also has a positive effect on high-order LED orders. The upstream layout contributes to the stability of the source by investing in the sapphire substrate factory Zhaoyuan and Zhaojing, and the downstream cooperation with the China Electronic Information Industry Group (including TPV TPV, Nanjing Panda, China Great Wall, etc.) is also beneficial. Haikou is stable.
The layout of the strategy in the upstream and downstream is also quite complete. The upstream department has a strategic shareholding relationship with Datong Group (Chi, etc.), and the downstream has established a joint venture with the LCD TV manufacturing giant Ruixuan (2489) and the Korean panel manufacturer LGDisplay. It seems that the competitive conditions also have a comparative advantage.
As for the AUO (2, 409) Group's Ronda (3698), Chi Mei Electric (3481), and the LED production capacity of Samsung and LG Group, most of them are used by the supply group, so they are expected to be new in mainland China. The degree of influence of production capacity may be more of a single-chip LED epitaxial/grain manufacturer. The new competitive situation that may be faced in 2011, its operational changes and orders are worthy of continuous attention.
However, in terms of gross profit margin, whether it is a big factory or a small factory, Lin Zhixun emphasized that if the price of low-end LED die products continues to decline as expected, the gross profit margin of Taiwan's LED epitaxial/die manufacturers should remain as in 2010. Such a 40% level of glory should be unlikely.
According to estimates, by the end of 2010, the total number of MOCVD machines installed in China will reach more than 330. According to the information from the manufacturer, the number of MOCVD machines installed in China in 2011 will be 700-800 conservatively (more than 1000 manufacturers are more optimistic), even if some of the Taiwanese companies are deducted. Manufacturers, pure land-based companies, MOCVD machine installations may also reach a total of 500-600 units, equivalent to an additional Taiwan LED industry supply.
More importantly, these machines have only been expanded in the last two years, so they are all new generation machines with high volume. According to Xiamen Sanan, the largest LED epitaxial/grain factory in mainland China, it is estimated that the total number of MOCVD machines will be more than 40 in 2010. It is estimated that the installed capacity will reach 100 in 2011, and its capacity will be at least Approaching the standard of the round, and almost all of the new machines, the overall output competitiveness is competitive.
Currently investing in mainland China to set up a MOCVD process in Taiwan, such as the Ronda Suzhou plant (estimated 50 units), Yuyuan and Ruixuan and other joint ventures (estimated 50 units), Jingdian Changzhou factory (estimated 50 units), Dingyuan (2426) Fuzhou plant (estimated 30 units), New Century (3383) Kunshan plant (estimated 50 units) and so on.
Taiwan LED manufacturers continue to expand MOCVD machines in 2010. It is estimated that by the end of 2010, the total number of MOCVD machines installed in Taiwan should reach 600 or so. In 2011, due to the fact that many manufacturers have moved to mainland China, MOCVD in Taiwan is estimated. The expansion speed of the machine will slow down a lot.
It is worth noting that due to the early development of Taiwan's LED epitaxial/grain industry, at least half of the machines are currently the early 24 machines or 18 machines, and even the earliest 11 machines. Taiwan, 6-machine, these older MOCVD machines, planning production capacity and production efficiency compared with the new generation of machines just installed in 2010, but a lot behind.
However, on the demand side, Lin Zhixun emphasized that the development prospects of LED applications should be no noise. Even though the recent LED-backlit LCD TVs are limited by the price threshold, sales are a bit slower, but from the supplier's point of view, even the 3-line brand manufacturers have fully converted to the LED backlight models, showing that the LED-backlit LCD TVs are at the bottom of the list. Before the end of 2011, the LED backlight LCD TV penetration rate should reach 40%-50% should be no problem. LED lighting applications are also continuing to grow and are expected to grow rapidly in 2012.
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