China's new generation of mobile communication technology TD-LT E has won wide support from the international industry, and the number of base stations is expected to reach 30,000 by the end of 2012. With the gradual promotion of TD-LT E among global operators, the market is expected to cover 2.7 billion people by 2013.
However, experts also pointed out that network coverage is only the first step. Given that chip and terminal bottlenecks have not yet been completely broken, it may take some time for consumers to truly enjoy the high-speed experience of mobile terminals.
TD-LTE "Global Journey" is in full swing
TD-LT E is the follow-up evolution technology of China's 3D technology T D-SC DMA with independent intellectual property rights. It has the characteristics of wireless, broadband and mobile. It was established as one of the three international 4G standards by the International Telecommunication Union in October last year. The other two major standards are the US-led WiM AX and the European-led FD D-LT E. Unlike TD-SCD MA, which is limited to China, TD-LT E is gaining more support from global operators.
China Mobile estimates that the number of base stations for TD-LT E will reach about 6,500 by the end of 2011, and will reach about 30,000 by the end of 2012.
Gao Hua Securities Research believes that TD-LT E is becoming a global unpaired spectrum communication solution due to its interoperability with 3G, high data capacity, and utilization of the FD D-LT E ecosystem. At present, 12 operators have indicated that they plan to apply TD-LT E.
Chip terminal bottleneck needs further breakthrough
The maturity of chips and terminals is a prerequisite for the development of the wireless communications industry chain. The key factor restricting the maturity of the TD-LT E industry in the early stage was the chip bottleneck. However, with the active intervention of some powerful manufacturers, the gap between TD-LTE and FD D-LT E in the maturity of chips and terminals gradually narrowed.
Lu Yongchang, consulting director of IT Business Center of Analysys Business Solutions, told reporters that although TD-LTE has been actively involved by many companies, its overall level is still not ideal. Too much spectrum dispersion means that users need to achieve better roaming services, the chip and terminal must support multiple frequency bands. And multi-band will bring about increased product power consumption, chip size is too large, cost is too high and so on, and the range of LT E smartphones currently available is very small.
Wang Zhiqin, deputy chief engineer of the Telecommunication Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, also said that the terminal was the biggest bottleneck in the initial commercial use of the TD-LT E, and most of it was initially a data card, and then gradually turned to mobile phones.
"Reference to the 3G development process, the terminal is at least half a year or a year later than the network construction process." Kang Zhiyi, an analyst at Donghai Securities and Communications, said. In addition, he gave a set of data showing that in the initial stage of 3G commercial use of China Mobile, the number of terminals was about 100, and the monthly number of 3G users increased by about 300,000 to 400,000. Now the number of terminals has increased to more than 290, and 3G users are added every month. It has also doubled to 2 to 3 million households.
The industry generally believes that there is a close connection between the terminal and the user. After the bottleneck is broken, the user scale will show a rapid growth trend.
Domestic commercial time is concerned
The report released by IH S iSuppli recently believes that the theoretical network speed of LT E can reach 10 times the currently widely used 3G technology, which is suitable for real-time applications with large data volume such as video transmission and multiplayer games. By 2015, the number of users will reach a considerable level.
In addition, research institute Maravedis recently estimated that the deployment of LT E is accelerating, and by 2016, the global LT E users will reach 448 million.
Analysts pointed out that as the wireless market matures, technology itself is no longer a differentiating factor that consumers value, and operators, mobile phone manufacturers and chipset suppliers no longer simply emphasize technical parameters. Instead, they started thinking from a usage perspective, focusing their attention on product elements that can enhance the overall user experience, such as attractive mobile user interfaces, fun-enhancing applications, and smooth integration with new cloud services. .
Yan Bing, executive director of the China-Japan 3G Application Research Institute, said: "Unsurprisingly, TD-LTE will be deployed in many key cities in China in 2013." Wang Zhiqin also expects that the more clear commercial application time point will be in 2013 Years later.
However, Lu Yongchang believes that it took 10 years from the introduction of the 3G standard to the official commercial use, and it is expected that the domestic large-scale TD-LT E may be after 2015.
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