The improvement of the operator's grid connection rate has promoted the wind power industry to reverse the wind power industry. As of 2013, the installed capacity of wind turbines has exceeded 91 GW. However, most of the domestic wind farm resources are still undeveloped. UHV line completion and national grid-connected policies are impelling to improve wind power operators. The grid-connected rate, which has led to the recovery of operators' profit margins, has also stimulated the enthusiasm of operators for wind power installations. The construction of the Hami-Zhengzhou UHV line in 2013 stimulated the construction of about 7GW of wind field in Xinjiang, making Xinjiang become the fastest growing area of ​​the wind farm, and due to the possibility of lowering electricity prices in 2015, domestic wind power installed capacity is expected to exceed 22GW in 2014. The new high will drive the shipment of wind turbines.
The volume of wind turbines bidding increased, and the 2014 results are worth looking forward to. Due to the country’s accelerated allocation of new energy subsidy funds and improvement in wind power curtailment, wind power bidding in 2013 experienced a large margin after experiencing a 2012 trough (8.2 GW). A rebound (in 2013, the amount of tenders increased by more than 100% year-on-year). At the same time, due to the consolidation of the entire wind power industry in the past two years, some companies that did not have a competitive advantage gradually withdrew, and the tender price for wind turbines also picked up. In 2013, the price of wind turbines picked up. About 10%. Since the construction of wind farms generally has a construction period of 6-12 months, the recovery of wind turbine volume and price may be reflected in the first quarter and second quarter of next year, which is expected to drive the reversal of wind power industry in 2014.
Offshore wind power and other policies will open up space for the industry This year, the country is expected to issue offshore wind power benchmarking prices. The introduction of offshore wind power tariffs will stimulate the rapid development of offshore wind power industry, opening up long-term growth space for the wind power industry, and most of the offshore wind power adopts large-scale wind turbines. Anti-corrosion, higher stability requirements, help to improve the wind turbine parts wind turbines and other profit margins.
The market share of Mingyang Wind Power (MY.N) will increase, and will benefit from the development of offshore wind power. Mingyang Wind Power mainly operates the complete wind turbine business. In recent years, the company has rapidly expanded with the decline and withdrawal of established wind power companies such as Sinovel. Market share According to CEC's data, the company's market share of wind turbine sales in 2013 has reached 8%, which is the third largest number for domestic companies and has continued to rise. At the same time, the company is also actively transforming the development of wind farms. At present, the company has signed wind farms with orders exceeding 3.6 GW, and the wind farm project in question has exceeded 5.45 GW. The company’s wind farm resources include offshore wind farms in Guangdong and Jiangsu, as of this year. With the launch of the national offshore wind power benchmarking price, the company's wind power business is expected to further maintain the rapid growth trend and is the most outstanding variety of overseas wind power listed companies.
The risk suggests that the recovery of the wind power industry is lower than expected, and the company’s profit margin recovery is lower than expected.
Investment suggestion: The wind power industry has been reversed. Focus on outstanding listed companies. We believe that the wind power industry has been reversed. With the improvement of the wind power operator's profit margin brought about by the improvement of the wind power connection rate, the newly installed capacity of wind power is expected to exceed 20 GW this year. It will reach a new historical high. At the same time, the integration of wind power component companies will be completed, and the gross profit rate of wind turbines will also show a quarterly upward trend. We believe that the wind power industry has been reversed and we can focus on overseas excellent wind power companies such as Mingyang Wind Power (MY).
Investment Summary Key Conclusions and Investment Recommendations We believe that the wind power industry has been reversed. With the improvement of the wind power operator's profit margin brought about by the increase in the wind power connection rate, the newly installed capacity of wind power is expected to exceed 20 GW this year and reach a record high. With the integration of wind power component companies completed, the gross profit rate of wind turbine enterprises also showed a trend of recovery from quarter to quarter, which can focus on overseas excellent wind power companies such as Mingyang Wind Power (MY).
Core assumptions or logic (1) Improvement in grid connection rate in the wind power industry brings volume and price rises in the wind power industry in 2013 (2) With the introduction of national transmission line construction and renewable energy quota system policies, wind power grid connection is still improving. Space; (3) Improvement of wind power grid connection is expected to bring about rapid growth in wind power installed capacity in the next few years; (4) Offshore wind power further opens up industry growth space and breaks down the ceiling of the industry; (5) Under the premise of industry recovery, the industry There may be plate opportunities, offshore wind benchmark prices and renewable energy quotas are potential catalysts.
(6) As the leading second-tier wind turbine in China, Mingyang Wind Power is highly valued in wind turbine manufacturing, wind farm operations and offshore wind power, and deserves special attention.
Different from the market expectation, the market believes that the wind power industry will be a stable growth industry, but we believe that the wind power industry is likely to achieve rapid growth of more than 30% in the next two years while the power curtailment situation is improving. There are a large number of projects on land-based wind power that are not under construction. Offshore wind power has opened up space for the industry. We believe that the wind power industry has been reversed and will have investment value.
The catalytic factors of stock price changes (1) Wind power companies exceeded their expectations in the first half of this year; (2) Wind power bidding exceeded expectations; (3) Offshore wind power benchmark price launch; (4) Renewable energy quota system was launched.
Key assumptions or logic of the core risks (1) risk of wind power tariff adjustment; (2) lower than expected risk of offshore wind power construction; (3) risk of deteriorating wind power grid integration; (4) risk of wind power integration being lower than expected .
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