LED Development Trend Analysis in 2013

LED Development Trend Analysis in 2013 In early November, the LED industry held a grand forum where elites from all walks of life discussed the industry in 2013. Experts and scholars from various industries, universities, and research institutes have spoken freely and conducted in-depth analysis on the problems that have emerged in the LED industry. They have sought to explore how LEDs are looking for new growth opportunities under the current technological conditions and how to provide a dynamic and in-depth discussion for LED's strong growth. The forum will give tips for the development of the LED industry under the new economic situation.

Future prospects: This is the best time and the worst time in the underground parking lot of Shenzhen Academy of Building Research. The 16-watt lamp can achieve the lighting effect of 40-watt fluorescent lamps; when the car is parked, the driver will leave and the brightness of the lamp Automatically adjust to the original 30% ... This is the magic effect of this green building all replaced with LED lighting.

If 50% of the country’s light sources use LEDs, the annual energy consumption is equal to the construction of 2.5 Three Gorges power stations. Chen Hongda, deputy director of the Institute of Semiconductors at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that if 50% of China's light sources are switched to LEDs, it will be able to save 210 billion kwh per year, equivalent to the construction of 2.5 Three Gorges Projects. At the same time, LEDs have unparalleled advantages in terms of life span, application flexibility, and so on.

"But from the current stage, the popularity of LED lighting is still not high, the biggest problem is the cost." Li Ke, director of the Information Industry Department of the China Semiconductor Industry Association, said that the current cost of LED lighting is about 3-5 times the average light source. However, with the advancement of technology, the cost of light sources and components is declining, and the market share of LED is also steadily increasing. According to statistics from CCID Consulting, a well-known industry consultancy, China's LED lighting market in 2011 was 21.14 billion yuan, an increase of 32.6% year-on-year.

At present, China has formulated relevant policies to further promote the large-scale development of the LED market. In August this year, the Ministry of Science and Technology released the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” for semiconductor lighting, and proposed that by 2015, the share of semiconductor lighting in the general lighting market should reach 30%. Since October, China has banned the import and sale of incandescent lamps of more than 100 watts.

The industry expects that in the next few years, China's LED lighting market will usher in the peak period of development, and the market demand is expected to exceed 100 billion, with a market share of more than 30%.

“This is the best era and the worst era.” Shi Xixi, the father of Taiwan’s LED industry, described the situation of the LED industry in 2013. He believes that at this point in time, for many people in the industry, this is a time when the situation is extremely hot and the prices have dropped drastically, but the market has not grown up. The market that was originally expected to break through has not broken through, but for an industry In terms of long-term progress, it is much clearer than a year ago or two years ago.

Development trend of LED lighting industry Since 2012, China's LED industry has been developing rapidly under the promotion of policies, funds, and markets. Both the output value scale and the industrial chain have achieved good results. However, from a global perspective, China's LED industry is still at a young stage, especially the level of industrial technology is low, and the gap between LED and developed countries is relatively large. Therefore, fully understanding the position of China's LED industry in the world and comprehensively analyzing the development trend of the LED industry will play an important role in further grasping the development direction and formulating targeted promotion policies. So what kind of situation will LED show in the future?

First of all, technological upgrading and cost reduction, the industry ushered in the game of price and quality.

LED manufacturers have always been committed to improving product technology and reducing component and manufacturing costs. On the one hand, by increasing the strength of R&D and improving the luminous efficiency of components, the price per 1,000 lumens will continue to decline. With reference to the “Solid-State Lighting Development Annual Plan” published by the US DOE in May 2011, the luminous efficiency has continued to increase regardless of cool white or warm white LED components, and the cost has dropped. Cool white LEDs have grown to 134 lm/w at the end of 2010 at a price of $13 per 1,000 lumens. The warm white LED's luminous efficiency has increased to 96 lm/w at the end of 2010, at a price of $18 per thousand lumens. As for future development goals, the luminous efficiency of 2015 cool white LED components proposed by DOE will increase to 224lm/w, and the price will drop to US$2 per 1,000 lumens. Warm white light will increase luminous efficiency to 202lm/w, and the price will decline to 2.2 per 1,000 lumens. Dollars. On the other hand, through the improvement of manufacturing processes or materials, product quality is improved and overall manufacturing costs are reduced. Upstream component technology upgrades and cost reductions will drive downstream lighting product prices to increase rapidly, and the LED industry is moving in a direction that is reasonable and stable. Industry experts pointed out that the price of LED products is declining by about 20% per year, and the focus of future industrial competition will shift to product quality and service.

Secondly, the incandescent lamp ban is implemented. The incandescent light bulbs in the LED industry are the most common lighting sources in the world. The market share is as high as 70%, but its luminous efficiency is only 8 to 20 lm/W, and the overall lighting system efficiency is 50 lm/W. Considering energy conservation, countries have proposed plans to phase out incandescent bulbs. China plans to ban the import and sale of incandescent bulbs of more than 100 watts in October 2012. In 2014 and October 2016, incandescent bulbs of 60 watts and over 15 watts will be banned from import and sales.

With the promotion of the prohibition of production, prohibition of sale, and the prohibition of incandescent light policies in various countries, the search for alternative light sources with better luminous efficiency has become an imperative. Under the trend of falling prices and increasing quality, LED bulbs are expected to become the best alternative light source to replace incandescent bulbs because of their long life, high light efficiency, and low power consumption. Judging from the global lighting market, only Japan has successfully applied LED bulbs nationwide in 2010. The success factors include the support of Japanese government policies, manufacturers’ efforts to reduce prices, and consumers’ high awareness of energy conservation and environmental protection.

In addition, product design starts from the demand side and emphasizes the user's experience in the past. LED lighting manufacturers emphasize luminous efficiency, light output, and product life. Nowadays, technology-side growth has become an inevitable trend that can make consumers look brighter instead. From the perspective of consumers, lighting products that meet the lighting needs of end-users. Illumination and color are the most frequent physical phenomena in human contact. Different light intensities and colors can have different effects on people. When the product emphasizes people's visual feelings more, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the feelings and perceptions received by the human eye and the brain in the development and design of lighting fixtures, and at the same time pay attention to human physiological and psychological needs. After the rapid expansion of LED lighting applications, whether it can meet the needs of consumers and create an overall light environment and appropriate atmosphere will be an important factor affecting the popularity of LED applications.

Finally, as companies strengthen their access plans, the pace of international mergers and acquisitions has accelerated.

Market access is a key factor in the development of lighting products to terminals. In the past, LED component manufacturers only needed to focus on the improvement of luminous efficiency of LED components, and the completed semi-finished products could be provided to downstream manufacturers. As LEDs move toward lighting applications, more LED upstream vendors are looking to move toward vertical integration and have direct access to terminal access and consumers. The completely different thinking will be the challenge faced by the LED manufacturers, and the lack of experience in the layout of the access roads will also become a bottleneck for LED lighting products to reach the terminal.

In addition, as far as national projects are concerned, LED opportunities are mainly concentrated in: major energy-saving technologies and equipment industrialization projects; semiconductor lighting industrialization and application engineering; "urban minerals" demonstration project; remanufacturing industrialization projects; industrial waste resource utilization Engineering; major demonstration projects for environmental protection technology equipment and product industrialization; construction of seawater desalination industrial base; energy conservation and environmental protection service industry cultivation project.

At present, international lighting manufacturers have more advantages in the layout of access routes. The long-established international lighting manufacturers have had less effort in channel management, and they only need to shift their flagship products from traditional light sources to the promotion of emerging LED. Relying on the advantages of the brand and sales channels, internationally renowned LED companies will accelerate the pace of mergers and acquisitions, and accelerate the entire industry chain when the industry enters the traditional off-season to further enhance the competitiveness of enterprises. For example, last year, Philips acquired the Spanish outdoor lighting group, one of the top five lighting manufacturers in the world.

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